Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 30 · 19:45 · Roma vs Napoli
Likeliest: Roma win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma37%37%0
OursMarket
Draw31%33%−2
OursMarket
Napoli32%30%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Cremonese (A)3-1
- Nov 9 · v Udinese (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · at Rangers (A)2-0
- Nov 2 · at Milan (A)0-1
Napoli
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Nov 25 · v Qarabağ (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 9 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Como (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Roma | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.