Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Roma vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid54%51%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Como (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inter Milan (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Torino (A)2-0
- Sep 10 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Atalanta (H)2-1
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Atletico Madrid (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Inter Milan (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.