Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · Roma vs ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Likeliest: Roma win · 88%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 88% for the home win. The market says 85%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma88%85%+3
OursMarket
Draw8%10%−2
OursMarket
ŠK Slovan Bratislava4%5%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 12% | 15% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 94% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Real Madrid (H)3-4
- Oct 11 · at Como (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inter Milan (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Torino (A)2-0
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at FC Spartak Trnava (A)3-0
- Oct 14 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at MFK Skalica (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at KFC Komárno (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FC Nitra (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | ŠK Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.