UEFA Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · Romania vs Sweden
Likeliest: Sweden win · 48%
A 29% draw. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Romania23%24%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%24%+5
OursMarket
Sweden48%52%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 32% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Romania
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 2 · at Poland (A)0-6
- Sep 28 · v Bosnia & Herzegovina (H)2-4
- Sep 25 · at Sweden (A)0-0
- Jun 6 · v Wales (H)2-1
- Jun 2 · at Georgia (A)1-1
Sweden
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 2 · at Bosnia & Herzegovina (A)1-1
- Sep 28 · v Poland (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Romania (H)0-0
- Jun 30 · at France (A)0-3
- Jun 25 · at Japan (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Romania | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.