Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · Rosario Central Reserve vs Aldosivi Reserve
Likeliest: Rosario Central Reserve win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rosario Central Reserve59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Aldosivi Reserve17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rosario Central Reserve
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)2-2
- Sep 30 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 24 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Atlético Tucumán Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 10 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)0-3
Aldosivi Reserve
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 7 · v Tigre Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 29 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)2-3
- Sep 23 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at River Plate Reserve (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rosario Central Reserve | Aldosivi Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.