Copa Libertadores (South America) · Fri, Aug 14 · 00:30 · Rosario Central vs Corinthians
Likeliest: Rosario Central win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 42%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rosario Central51%42%+9
OursMarket
Draw29%32%−3
OursMarket
Corinthians21%26%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 61% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rosario Central
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 7 · v Aldosivi (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at River Plate (A)1-0
- Jul 29 · v Racing Club (H)0-0
- Jul 23 · at Belgrano (A)1-2
- May 31 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-3
Corinthians
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 9 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Internacional (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at Internacional (A)0-2
- Jul 30 · v Athletico (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Bahia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rosario Central | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.