Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · Rosario Central vs Huracán
Likeliest: Rosario Central win · 61%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rosario Central61%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Huracán13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rosario Central
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)5-0
- Oct 6 · at Banfield (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Tigre (A)1-0
Huracán
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Barracas Central (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Aldosivi (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at River Plate (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Racing Club (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Rosario Central | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.