Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:00 · Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Likeliest: Rosario Central win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rosario Central48%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Independiente Rivadavia21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rosario Central
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Banfield (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Tigre (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-2
Independiente Rivadavia
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Barracas Central (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Aldosivi (H)4-3
- Sep 6 · at River Plate (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Rosario Central | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.