Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · Rosenborg BK vs Sandefjord Fotball
Likeliest: Rosenborg BK win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rosenborg BK71%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw17%17%−1
OursMarket
Sandefjord Fotball12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rosenborg BK
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Kristiansund BK (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · at Fløya (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Tromsø IL (H)5-3
- Sep 5 · v HamKam (H)4-0
- Aug 30 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)2-4
Sandefjord Fotball
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 30 · at Flint FK (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v IK Start (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Viking FK (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v SK Brann (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rosenborg BK | Sandefjord Fotball |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.