DFB Pokal (Germany) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:00 · Rot-Weiss Essen vs FC St. Pauli
Likeliest: Rot-Weiss Essen win · 64%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rot-Weiss Essen64%30%+34
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
FC St. Pauli16%45%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 55% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 70% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 40% | +40 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rot-Weiss Essen
LossLossLossWin
- Aug 15 · v TSV Havelse (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)2-5
- May 26 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)0-2
- Aug 18 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
FC St. Pauli
DrawDraw
- Aug 14 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1