3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:30 · Rot-Weiss Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln
Likeliest: Rot-Weiss Essen win · 52%
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rot-Weiss Essen52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
FC Viktoria Köln26%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 64% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rot-Weiss Essen
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · v TSV Havelse (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)2-5
- May 26 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)0-2
FC Viktoria Köln
LossWinDrawWin
- Aug 30 · v Preußen Münster (H)4-1
- Aug 22 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | Rot-Weiss Essen | FC Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | — |
| Both teams scored | 17% | — |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.