3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 · Rot-Weiss Essen vs FC Würzburger Kickers
Likeliest: Rot-Weiss Essen win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rot-Weiss Essen53%54%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
FC Würzburger Kickers23%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rot-Weiss Essen
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v FC Viktoria Köln (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · v TSV Havelse (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)2-5
FC Würzburger Kickers
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at MSV Duisburg (A)0-3
- Aug 24 · v 1. FC Köln (H)1-2
- Aug 14 · v SV Wehen Wiesbaden (H)4-0
- Aug 8 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rot-Weiss Essen | FC Würzburger Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.