3. Liga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · Rot-Weiss Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Likeliest: Rot-Weiss Essen win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rot-Weiss Essen60%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
SSV Jahn Regensburg20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rot-Weiss Essen
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)0-1
- Oct 13 · v SC Fortuna Köln (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at Preußen Münster (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)2-1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v SV Wehen Wiesbaden (H)0-0
- Oct 14 · at SC Verl (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v TSV Havelse (H)5-0
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)3-3
- Sep 15 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Rot-Weiss Essen | SSV Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.