Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Rotherham United vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rotherham United30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Bradford City43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 54% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rotherham United
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Exeter City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at York City (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Northampton Town (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Salford City (H)3-3
Bradford City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Luton Town (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Notts County (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Rotherham United | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.