League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Rotherham United vs Gillingham
Likeliest: Rotherham United win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rotherham United51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Gillingham21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rotherham United
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 6 · v Bradford City (H)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Exeter City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · at York City (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Northampton Town (A)1-0
Gillingham
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Newport County (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at York City (A)0-3
- Sep 22 · v Cambridge United (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Rotherham United | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.