League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Rotherham United vs Newport County
Likeliest: Rotherham United win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rotherham United55%54%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Newport County20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rotherham United
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Gillingham (H)1-4
- Oct 6 · v Bradford City (H)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Exeter City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
Newport County
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v York City (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Colchester United (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Gillingham (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Rotherham United | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.