League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town
Likeliest: Rotherham United win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rotherham United39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Shrewsbury Town31%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rotherham United
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Gillingham (H)1-4
- Oct 6 · v Bradford City (H)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Exeter City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
Shrewsbury Town
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Bristol Rovers (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Exeter City (H)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Stockport County (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Colchester United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rotherham United | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.