EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 16:30 · Rotherham United vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 38%
A 35% home win. The market says 16%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rotherham United35%16%+19
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion38%62%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 38% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 84% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 20% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rotherham United
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-3
- Apr 25 · v Reading (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Luton Town (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Apr 14 · at Wigan Athletic (A)0-3
West Bromwich Albion
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
- Apr 21 · v Watford (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · v Millwall (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rotherham United | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.