Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Hapoel Be'er Sheva13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v KFC Nijlen (H)3-0
- Oct 15 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)3-0
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.