Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win · 40%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad34%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Lommel SK (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at RC Sporting Charleroi (A)3-2
Real Sociedad
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-3
- Sep 7 · at Elche (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.