Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · RSCA Futures U23 vs KAS Eupen
Likeliest: KAS Eupen win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RSCA Futures U2320%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
KAS Eupen55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RSCA Futures U23
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Royal Francs Borains (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v KSC Lokeren-Temse (H)2-6
- Sep 5 · at KAA Gent Reserve U23 (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v K. Beerschot V.A. (H)0-1
- Aug 21 · v Royal Excelsior Virton (H)0-1
KAS Eupen
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 27 · at KFC Merelbeke (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v RFC Liège (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Club NXT U23 (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at KSC Lokeren-Temse (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | RSCA Futures U23 | KAS Eupen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.