Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 16:45 · Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 75%
Likely score: 1–2
A 75% away win. The market says 71%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sabah FK8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund75%71%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 29% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 15% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sabah FK
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · v SK Slavia Praha (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at Manchester United (A)0-4
- Aug 25 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)3-2
- Aug 19 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)0-0
- Aug 11 · v AGF (H)4-0
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
- Oct 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sabah FK | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.