USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 02:00 · Sacramento Republic FC vs Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Likeliest: Sacramento Republic FC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sacramento Republic FC49%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC22%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sacramento Republic FC
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at FC Tulsa (A)1-1
- Oct 1 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at New Mexico United (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v San Antonio FC (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Detroit City FC (H)1-0
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v New Mexico United (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v San Antonio FC (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Loudoun United FC (A)5-4
| Last 10 games | Sacramento Republic FC | Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.