USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:00 · Sacramento Republic FC vs Oakland Roots SC
Likeliest: Sacramento Republic FC win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sacramento Republic FC64%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Oakland Roots SC14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sacramento Republic FC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at El Paso Locomotive FC (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at FC Tulsa (A)1-1
- Oct 1 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at New Mexico United (A)3-2
Oakland Roots SC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Tulsa (A)4-2
- Oct 11 · v San Antonio FC (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Indy Eleven (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sacramento Republic FC | Oakland Roots SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.