J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Sagan Tosu vs Fujieda MYFC
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sagan Tosu51%52%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Fujieda MYFC22%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sagan Tosu
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at FC Imabari (A)0-1
Fujieda MYFC
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Sagan Tosu | Fujieda MYFC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.