J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Sagan Tosu vs RB Omiya Ardija
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sagan Tosu38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
RB Omiya Ardija36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sagan Tosu
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-3
RB Omiya Ardija
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)3-1
- Oct 7 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-3
- Oct 4 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sagan Tosu | RB Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.