J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Sagan Tosu51%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Vanraure Hachinohe22%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sagan Tosu
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-1
Vanraure Hachinohe
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at FC Imabari (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sagan Tosu | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-2 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.