Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 9 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Amiens SC
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 62%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne62%81%−19
OursMarket
Draw20%12%+8
OursMarket
Amiens SC19%7%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 72% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 93% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 19% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 88% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 92% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- May 2 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Troyes (H)0-3
- Apr 18 · at Bastia (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Nancy (A)1-1
Amiens SC
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 2 · v Red Star (H)1-3
- Apr 24 · v Montpellier (H)0-2
- Apr 17 · at Rodez (A)2-3
- Apr 10 · v Pau (H)0-1
- Apr 3 · at Bastia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Amiens SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.