Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Grenoble Foot 38
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 43%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne43%66%−23
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+3
OursMarket
Grenoble Foot 3834%13%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 56% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 87% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 34% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 84% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 14 · v Clermont Foot (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at Sochaux (A)3-0
- May 29 · at Nice (A)1-4
- May 26 · v Nice (H)0-0
- May 15 · v Rodez (H)0-0
Grenoble Foot 38
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 14 · v Metz (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · at USL Dunkerque (A)2-4
- May 9 · v Troyes (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Dunkerque (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Le Mans (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.