Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Sep 5 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 17%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne47%61%−14
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+2
OursMarket
Montpellier29%17%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 83% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 39% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 79% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
LossWinWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · at Dijon (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)4-0
- Aug 14 · v Clermont Foot (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at Sochaux (A)3-0
- May 29 · at Nice (A)1-4
Montpellier
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 28 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · at Nancy (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v Dijon (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Red Star (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.