Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Oct 24 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Nantes
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne54%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Nantes21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Red Star FC (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Rodez AF (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Metz (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Montpellier (H)3-1
Nantes
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Stade de Reims (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Sochaux (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Nancy (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.