Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, May 15 · 18:30 · Saint-Étienne vs Rodez
Likeliest: Rodez win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 22%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne37%55%−18
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Rodez38%22%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 78% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 45% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 72% | −23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
WinLossLossLossWin
- May 9 · v Amiens SC (H)5-0
- May 2 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Troyes (H)0-3
- Apr 18 · at Bastia (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
Rodez
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 12 · at Red Star (A)3-2
- May 9 · at Annecy (A)2-1
- May 2 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · at Laval (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Amiens SC (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Rodez |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.