Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Rodez AF
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 69%
Likely score: 3–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne69%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Rodez AF12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Metz (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Montpellier (H)3-1
- Aug 31 · at Dijon (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)4-0
Rodez AF
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v Nancy (H)3-4
- Sep 11 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Metz (A)1-4
- Aug 28 · v Pau FC (H)2-2
- Aug 22 · at Nantes (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Rodez AF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.