Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 18:00 · Saint-Étienne vs Troyes
Likeliest: Troyes win · 44%
A 44% away win. The market says 26%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saint-Étienne32%48%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Troyes44%26%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 74% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 52% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 65% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saint-Étienne
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 18 · at Bastia (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Nancy (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Annecy (H)4-0
- Mar 14 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
Troyes
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 18 · v Boulogne (H)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Montpellier (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Dunkerque (H)5-1
- Mar 16 · at Annecy (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Saint-Étienne | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.