Serie C, Girone C (Italy) · Sun, Oct 4 · 18:30 · Salernitana vs Bari
Likeliest: Salernitana win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 38%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Salernitana54%38%+16
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Bari20%32%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 68% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 62% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 55% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Salernitana
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 26 · at Crotone (A)1-2
- Jun 15 · at Sampdoria (A)0-2
- May 13 · at Cittadella (A)2-0
- May 9 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- May 4 · v Mantova (H)2-0
Bari
Win
- Sep 26 · v Cosenza (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Salernitana | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.