League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Salford City vs Crawley Town
Likeliest: Salford City win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Salford City72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Crawley Town12%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Salford City
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-0
- Oct 6 · at Accrington Stanley (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Oldham Athletic (A)4-1
- Sep 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-2
Crawley Town
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Chesterfield (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Bromley (H)4-0
- Sep 22 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.