Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Salford City vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Salford City33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday42%40%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Salford City
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Rotherham United (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Newport County (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-1
Sheffield Wednesday
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v Stockport County (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Wigan Athletic (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Peterborough United (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Bromley (H)7-2
| Last 10 games | Salford City | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.