Serie B (Italy) · Mon, Apr 6 · 15:15 · Sampdoria vs Empoli
Likeliest: Sampdoria win · 47%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sampdoria47%39%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Empoli27%30%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 56% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sampdoria
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 22 · v Avellino (H)2-1
- Mar 18 · at Carrarese (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Venezia (H)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Frosinone (A)0-3
- Mar 4 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-1
Empoli
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 22 · v Pescara (H)4-2
- Mar 17 · at Spezia (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Mantova (H)2-2
- Mar 8 · at Catanzaro (A)2-3
- Mar 4 · at Bari 1908 (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sampdoria | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.