USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:30 · San Antonio FC vs New Mexico United
Likeliest: San Antonio FC win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Antonio FC46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
New Mexico United26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Antonio FC
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)1-2
New Mexico United
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)3-1
- Oct 4 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at FC Tulsa (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | San Antonio FC | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 4-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.