USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · San Antonio FC vs Orange County SC
Likeliest: San Antonio FC win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Antonio FC60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Orange County SC17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Antonio FC
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v New Mexico United (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)0-0
Orange County SC
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)1-3
- Oct 11 · at El Paso Locomotive FC (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Lexington SC (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | San Antonio FC | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 2-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.