Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 02:25 · San Diego FC vs Club Puebla
Likeliest: San Diego FC win · 66%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Diego FC66%65%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%19%+1
OursMarket
Club Puebla14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 66% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 81% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Diego FC
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 10 · v Club Tijuana (H)1-0
- Aug 7 · at Club América (A)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Minnesota United (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · v FC Dallas (H)1-0
- Jul 23 · at Colorado Rapids (A)0-1
Club Puebla
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 10 · at Austin FC (A)0-3
- Aug 7 · at Portland Timbers (A)2-5
- Aug 1 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at Cruz Azul (A)1-2
- Jul 18 · at FC Juárez (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | San Diego FC | Club Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.