Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Mon, Aug 10 · 02:00 · San Diego FC vs Club Tijuana
Likeliest: San Diego FC win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Diego FC50%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Club Tijuana26%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Diego FC
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 7 · at Club América (A)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Minnesota United (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · v FC Dallas (H)1-0
- Jul 23 · at Colorado Rapids (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)2-4
Club Tijuana
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 7 · at Austin FC (A)0-2
- Aug 1 · at Atlético San Luis (A)0-0
- Jul 25 · v Club León (H)1-0
- Jul 17 · v Tigres UANL (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Guadalajara (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | San Diego FC | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.