Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 02:30 · San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo
Likeliest: San Diego FC win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Diego FC44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Houston Dynamo28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Diego FC
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at New York Red Bulls (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · at Austin FC (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Philadelphia Union (H)0-5
- Sep 10 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)2-3
Houston Dynamo
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Minnesota United (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v FC Cincinnati (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | San Diego FC | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.