Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:30 · San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders FC
Likeliest: San Diego FC win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Diego FC43%43%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Seattle Sounders FC33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Diego FC
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at LA Galaxy (A)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Houston Dynamo (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · at New York Red Bulls (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · at Austin FC (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
Seattle Sounders FC
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v CF Montréal (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · at FC Dallas (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at New England Revolution (A)3-0
- Oct 2 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Minnesota United (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | San Diego FC | Seattle Sounders FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.