NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 23:00 · San Diego Wave FC vs Boston Legacy FC
Likeliest: San Diego Wave FC win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Diego Wave FC60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
Boston Legacy FC19%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Diego Wave FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at North Carolina Courage (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Orlando Pride (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · at Racing Louisville (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kansas City Current (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
Boston Legacy FC
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Racing Louisville (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Houston Dash (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Washington Spirit (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | San Diego Wave FC | Boston Legacy FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.