Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:30 · San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Likeliest: Nashville SC win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Jose Earthquakes26%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Nashville SC46%47%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Jose Earthquakes
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · at Real Salt Lake (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Colorado Rapids (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Los Angeles FC (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Houston Dynamo (H)1-0
Nashville SC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)4-0
- Oct 11 · at Austin FC (A)4-1
- Sep 27 · v Toronto FC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Chicago Fire (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.