Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 18:00 · San Lorenzo Reserve vs Sarmiento Reserve
Likeliest: San Lorenzo Reserve win · 41%
A 33% draw. The market says 28%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Lorenzo Reserve41%47%−7
OursMarket
Draw33%28%+5
OursMarket
Sarmiento Reserve27%25%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 72% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Lorenzo Reserve
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 7 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 29 · v Aldosivi Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 22 · v Huracán Reserve (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)0-1
Sarmiento Reserve
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 8 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Racing Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | San Lorenzo Reserve | Sarmiento Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.