Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:45 · San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Likeliest: draw · 37%
Likely score: 1–1
We make it 43% for both teams to score. The market says 37%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Lorenzo37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw37%34%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Riestra26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 37% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Lorenzo
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Boca Juniors (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CA Independiente (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Talleres (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)0-1
Deportivo Riestra
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 5 · v Central Córdoba (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Lanús (H)0-3
- Sep 9 · v Banfield (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Platense (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | San Lorenzo | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.