Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 22:15 · San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
Likeliest: draw · 36%
Likely score: 1–1
We make it 44% for both teams to score. The market says 39%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Lorenzo34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Newell's Old Boys30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 39% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Lorenzo
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Boca Juniors (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CA Independiente (A)1-1
Newell's Old Boys
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 19 · v Central Córdoba (H)2-1
- Oct 12 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Lanús (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Platense (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | San Lorenzo | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.