Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · San Martín de San Juan vs Temperley
Likeliest: San Martín de San Juan win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Martín de San Juan38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Temperley27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Martín de San Juan
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Almagro (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Patronato (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Colegiales (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v Tristán Suárez (H)0-0
Temperley
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Nueva Chicago (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Almagro (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Patronato (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | San Martín de San Juan | Temperley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.